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Deadly fights in Karabakh, Azerbaijan, and Armenia on the brink of war

Violent clashes broke out on Sunday between Azerbaijani forces and Yerevan-backed separatists. At least 23 civilians and soldiers were killed, according to both sides. Moscow and Paris are calling for "an immediate ceasefire".

Armenia and Azerbaijan were on the brink of war on Sunday, September 27, as deadly clashes erupted between Azerbaijani forces and the Yerevan-backed separatist Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The belligerents report at least twenty-three dead, civilians and soldiers, and a hundred wounded. Azerbaijan claims to have taken half a dozen villages from its opponent, which Armenia denies.

A major conflict involving Azerbaijan and Armenia could lead to the intervention of competing powers in the Caucasus region, Russia, and Turkey. The conflict around Nagorny-Karabakh, populated mainly by Armenians and which seceded from Azerbaijan with Armenian support, has fueled regional tensions for thirty years.

Martial law established in Armenia and Azerbaijan

After the announcement of the first fighting on Sunday morning, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pachinian decreed "general mobilization" and the establishment of "martial law", as did the authorities of Karabakh. “Let us firmly support our State, our army, and we will win. Long live the glorious Armenian army! ” He post on Facebook.

Nikol Pashinian later declared that Azerbaijan had "declared war" on the Armenian people, during a speech broadcast on Armenian television, believing that Baku and Yerevan were on the brink of a "major war" which could have “unforeseeable consequences” and spread beyond the Caucasus. He also warned of Turkey's "aggressive" interference.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced for its part to have launched a "counter-offensive on the whole front line" of Karabakh, in order to "put an end to military activities of the armed forces of Armenia".

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev promised victory: “The Azerbaijani army is fighting today on its territory, defends its territorial integrity, delivers devastating blows to the enemy. Our cause is just and we will win, ” he said in a speech on television.

Azerbaijan also declared martial law "from midnight" on Sunday afternoon in the country, as well as a curfew in Baku and several other major cities and in areas near the border. Karabakh front line “  from 9 pm to 6 am,” Azerbaijani presidency spokesman Hikmet Hajiyev told reporters.

He also said that the Azerbaijani forces had taken Mount Murovdag in Nagorny-Karabakh, a site described as "strategic" which rises to 3,000 meters because it is key for land communications between Armenia and the separatist territory.

At least sixteen separatist soldiers were killed, and more than a hundred wounded in the fighting, according to the Nagorny Karabakh authorities. The belligerents, who reject responsibility for the hostilities, also reported civilian casualties: Yerevan announced the death of a woman and a child, while Baku announced that of an Azerbaijani family of five.

The Karabakh Defense Ministry claimed to have destroyed four Azerbaijani helicopters, fifteen drones, and ten tanks. Baku said one of its helicopters was shot down, but its crew was unharmed, claiming to have destroyed twelve anti-aircraft batteries.

Moscow, Paris, and the EU call for "an immediate ceasefire"

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Sunday to end the fighting. "It is important to make all the necessary efforts to avoid an escalation of the confrontation, but the main thing is that the hostilities must be ended, " Putin said, quoted in a Kremlin statement, to the 'from a telephone interview with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pacinian. The Kremlin, which positions itself as a regional arbiter, delivers arms to both countries.

France, a mediator in the conflict with Russia and the United States within the framework of the Minsk Group, also called for "an immediate end to hostilities". In a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, France said it was "deeply concerned about the large-scale clashes underway in Nagorno-Karabakh", calling on the belligerents to "resume dialogue". Paris, "with its Russian and American partners, reiterates its commitment with a view to reaching a negotiated and lasting settlement of the conflict" in this region, "with respect for international law".

The President of the European Council, an institution representing the Member States of the European Union (EU), Charles Michel, called for the cessation of hostilities and "an immediate return to negotiations". "The information about the hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh is the source of most serious concern", said Charles Michel on Twitter. “The military action must stop, urgently, to prevent any escalation (of the violence). An immediate return to negotiations, without preconditions, is the only possible way ”.

A spokesman for the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a traditional ally of Baku, denounced on Twitter an "attack on Armenia". The Turkish defense minister said on Sunday that Ankara would support Azerbaijan "with all its means" and called on Armenia to "cease its aggression".

Deadlocked on Peace Talks

The Nagorno-Karabakh region was the scene of a war in the early 1990s that left 30,000 dead, and since then the Azerbaijani authorities want to regain control, by force if necessary. The peace talks have been deadlocked for many years.

Fights regularly oppose separatists and Azerbaijanis, but also Yerevan and Baku. In 2016, serious clashes had already almost degenerated into war in Karabakh, and deadly fighting also pitted Armenians and Azerbaijanis on their northern border in July 2020.

Both sides are used to blaming each other for these outbreaks of violence. President Aliyev threatened Armenia with reprisals on Friday for his "aggressive behavior" and accused Yerevan of "deliberately failing the negotiations" of peace on Karabakh. He estimated that Armenia was preparing “tens of thousands of men” to attack Azerbaijan.

Baku took advantage of its immense oil reserves to spend lavishly on armaments. Azerbaijan can also count on the support of the Turkish president, who sees Armenia as a threat to the stability of the Caucasus.

On the other hand, Armenia, much poorer, is closer to Russia, which has a military base there. Yerevan also belongs to a politico-military alliance led by Moscow, the Collective Security Treaty Organization.