How the November Election Could Affect US Aid to Ukraine

"On November 8, 2022, over 1,200 candidates will run for nearly 500 seats in the House of Representatives and US Senate"

In a month, on November 8, American voters will go to the polls and will determine the fate of the country for the next two years.

While Americans won't vote for the president this time around, they will elect representatives to the Senate and House of Representatives.

For Ukraine, the significance of these elections is difficult to overestimate. A Republican (or rather, Trumpist) victory could create uncertainty about further support from the United States, according to an article by Svetlana Kovalchuk, Ph.D.

Midterm Elections 2022

All 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 (this time) of the 100 seats in the Senate. That is how, according to the results of the elections, the composition of the US Congress should be updated.

Also on November 8, 36 of the 50 state governors will be elected, as well as applicants for other state and local positions, including governors, secretaries of state and attorneys general, as well as members of the legislature.

This is important because at least 12 gubernatorial seats, including Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona, could change parties. In turn, the winners of these contests will influence public policy on issues as diverse as abortion, voting rights, and Covid-19.

So far, Democrats have narrow majorities in both houses, which creates ideal conditions for Democrats to pass bills that President Joe Biden will sign.

In turn, the Senate is divided in half between Democrats and Republicans. However, as vice president, Kamal Harris has a casting vote, which means the Democrats have control here as well. This means that the Senate will give the Senate a majority of only one seat to the Republicans.

So what is really at stake is the efficiency of the Biden administration.

Available forecasts show that the Democrats are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives, but retain in the Senate.

If the Democrats lose and give the Republicans control of both the Senate and the House, this will create good conditions for the return of Donald Trump to the political stage and preparations for the presidential election.

Now, most of the Republican candidates are Trump supporters, although there are exceptions. This alignment shows that the ex-president retains control over the party.

But at the same time, this also indicates a departure from the traditional foundations of republicanism.

Another feature of the current election process is the fact that Trump is now the subject of four separate investigations that could lead to criminal charges.

For us, of course, the key issue is further support for Ukraine.

If with the victory of the Democrats, further support is absolutely predictable, then with the victory of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, certain questions arise here, which are partially determined by the domestic political competition of the Democratic and Republican parties.

The negative thing for us is the fact that the Trumpists, who are gaining weight, are still more focused on domestic political processes and do not always support the provision of support to Ukraine.

However, a recent poll showed that 73% of the US population supports providing assistance to Ukraine even under the threat of a Russian nuclear strike.

Although the level of support among Democrats is significantly higher than among Republicans (81% vs. 66%), in both parties, the majority of sympathizers support aid to Ukraine.